My April 2012 Report is out!!

 Summary

§         En Primeur 2011 is starting earlier this year; first releases from the smaller chateaux have already begun and the Robert Parker ratings expected in a few weeks.

§         Overall we expect scores to be in the low to mid 90s range, but no perfect scores (unlike 2009 and 2010), given this year is said by Parker to be a “complicated vintage” and “irregular” in terms of individual chateaux’s performance. It is similar to the 2008 and 2001 vintage.

§         James Suckling scores are out and reveal a good but not great vintage (see chart below).

§         In order for 2011 EP to be of strong consumer value, we believe release prices should be at least 30-40% lower than the 2010 vintage.

§         Juxtaposed by the 2011 vintage, the exceptional 2009 and 2010 vintages remain to be great investments with healthy returns in the long-run.

§         The 2011 vintage in our view is about picking out the “hidden gems” from the pack and buying great wines for future drinking.

§         Begin by building a “wish list” of 2011 wines now. Wines we recommend to watch (depending on release price): Lynch Bages, Pontet Canet, Pichon Baron, Pichon Lalande, Leoville-Las Cases, Ducru Beaucaillou, Yquem, Palmer.

2011 En Primeur: Returning to Value for Bordeaux Wines

The 2011 vintage will have been barrel tasted and rated by all the top critics in the upcoming few weeks. The En Primeur campaign is starting earlier this year and some of the very early releases have already begun.

While some critics maintain that the wines are better than expected (as Bordeaux had experienced unstable weather in 2011), many others have suggested that top chateaux have underperformed. The recent James Suckling barrel tasting scores of the 2011 vintage have come out, and Robert Parker’s scores will soon follow.

We expect Parker’s scores to be quite varied scores across the chateaux, as from his blog he mentions that the 2011 is a “complicated vintage to navigate... irregular, but very rewarding to those who got it right.”

He adds that the 2011 vintage “may be close to both 2008 and 2001 in overall quality”, which means it will definitely not be as exceptional as the great 2009 and 2010 vintages.

Below are Suckling’s scores (juxtaposed by his 2010 and 2001 scores) for some of the top Chateaux:

Suckling’s scores, Parker’s comments (and soon to come out ratings), should come as a relief to long-time collectors and drinkers of Bordeaux. If you turned away from these wines in the past two years because China’s thirst for Bordeaux had driven prices up to historical heights, then this is a chance to come back to the market.

The 2011 vintage as we predict, is going to be a return to value for Bordeaux, and for those who buy top growths for personal consumption and collection, this should be great news as the prices are expected to be much more affordable than the previous two vintages.

2009 and 2010: Still Exceptional, Still Worthy

At the same time, for the avid investors who bought the 2009 and 2010 vintage, you should be reassured that given the less than stellar results of the 2011 vintage, the higher value of your investments are well-justified and should bring about healthy returns in the long-run.

After all, Robert Parker had already mentioned in his blog that the 2009 “is unquestionably the greatest Bordeaux vintage I have ever tasted,” and that 2010, while “not yet in bottle, is going to be another fascinating vintage.”

Conclusion: Finding Hidden Gems at Great Pricing

Since the 2011 is not a homogenous vintage due to patchy performances across different chateaux, those who are interested in getting involved with the 2011 vintage should take a patient approach. In order for 2011 EP to be of strong consumer value, we believe release prices should be at least 30-40% lower than the 2010 vintage.

As Chateaux start to release their prices, and critics give their final barrel scores in the upcoming few weeks, it is a great opportunity to spot the hidden gems within the vintage, before making a final decision on what to buy.

We suggest for customers to begin by building a “wish list” of 2011 wines now.

The 2011 vintage in our view is one where Super Seconds will be more worthy of investment and drinking, unless the First Growth chateaux come up with exceptionally good prices.

The wines we recommend to watch (assuming release prices are reasonable) are: Lynch Bages, Pontet Canet, Pichon Baron, Pichon Lalande, Leoville-Las Cases, Ducru Beaucaillou, Yquem and Palmer.

In conclusion, we believe 2011 EP is going to be considered an affordable vintage, to both buyers and investors alike. If priced properly by the Chateaux and picked carefully, the wines might turn out to be very smart buys in the future.